Avalanche warning: Saturday, December 27th 2008

THIS AVALANCHE WARNING IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH INCLUDING THE BEAR RIVER RANGE, WESTERN UINTAS, WASATCH, TUSHARS AND MANTI SKYLINE. A POTENT STORM WILL EFFECT THE MOUNTAINS AND OVERLOAD AN EXISTING WEAK SNOWPACK. THIS WILL RESULT IN NATURAL AVALANCHE ACTIVITY. HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE ALMOST CERTAIN ON MANY HIGH ELEVATION SLOPES. THE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IS RECOMMENDING THAT PEOPLE AVOID THE BACKCOUNTRY UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND EVEN THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME CLEARING OF THE WEATHER.

Bottom line:

Below treeline there isn’t enough snow to ride on just yet, and the avalanche danger is LOW.  Nearly all of the West facing aspects are wind scoured and are in poor riding condition.  Above treeline on East facing aspects, the avalanche danger is rated as CONSIDERABLE with pockets of HIGH.  A combination of fresh wind slabs and large lurking hard slabs exist, especially on East facing aspects.  If you trigger one of the fresh wind slabs (which you could do remotely) , there is potential for it to “step down” and trigger a deep hard slab avalanche.  Increased wind loading will lead to a natural avalanche cycle.  Choose safe routes that keep you out of high elevation avalanche paths.

Current conditions:

Looking at the mountains from the valley, it looks like it’s finally go time, and it almost is.  Unfortunately, before this last storm, non wind loaded aspects had little or no snow on them.  This last week of storms put down 21″ of light densitry snow on our storm boards, covering virtually everything in a nice blanket of white.  But, there’s  no base out there.  We watched a few youngsters try to get through a nearly flat meadow in the Millers Flat area with very little success.  Why?  Because there isn’t anything for the track to hook up on yet.  Give it some time to settle and perhaps another storm cycle and traveling conditions will improve.  However, if you feel yourself suddenly on a “solid” piece of snow after snaking through the fluffy stuff, be aware that you’re likely on top of a wind slab, and you’re now in the sights of the avalanche dragon.

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